I also collect movie memorabilia, and the vintage movie paper collectables market (posters, photos, etc.) seems to be in a real slump. The German militaria collectables market appears to be booming by contrast, but then I'm still new to the field.
I wanted to bid on a BDM postcard earlier this week, but I had a feeling I would be outbid. And how! The starting bid was 2,99 EU. Well, just look where it ended up:
[OK, I tried to post the eBay link, but eBay has been really screwy recently with "ended" auction links, so here's the photo. Keep reading for the price...]
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I mean really? It's lovely and rare and all, but with these prices... man, what I could do with that kind of money. They're going to scare new collectors away with prices like that. The price was hanging around 15 or 20 EU in the last couple hours, and then WHAM! Within the last couple seconds it spiked up to 351,00 EU! That's over $400 USD!! I was floored watching this happen in real time. Makes you wonder what would've happened if one of the bidders' internet cut out at that moment, heh.
Strangely, these same high-rolling bidders didn't go much above 20 EU on all of the other BDM photos they bid on (but the others were "just" photos, not studio portrait postcards). Rare postcards seem to go for a lot higher than photos, for some reason. And I think it would be the other way around, because usually postcards would be mass-produced, meaning there should be far more out there than the photos from someone's camera. Although I can understand the larger format is more attractive, and perhaps some of these postcards (like the one above) are one-offs, specially ordered by the group in the photo. Any postcard collectors have any further info or the rarity of different types of postcards?
Anyway, I figure even within this niche, collectors have very specific things that they go for, and are willing to pay top dollar for. Some trends that others have noted include the braids, or certain decorations/patches, but at the end of the day, it can be quite an individual thing. Just because an individual collector goes after something very specific, doesn't mean it will ever hold that same value, on average, in the market. No, these high-rolling collectors with very specialist interests will likely never "get their money back," but then I reckon these purchases are not made as investments: they're made because the collectors love collecting.